URL: http://foodrisk.org/resource_types/tools/FSIS_RA_Models/01a.cfm
Draft Interagency Risk Assessment for the Public Health Impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (HPAIV) in Poultry, Shell Eggs, and Egg Products
Published: Nov 2008
This quantitative risk assessment provides a science-based, analytical approach to collate and incorporate available data into a mathematical model, and it provides risk managers a decision-support tool to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to reduce or prevent foodborne illness from HPAIV in the U.S. This risk assessment can also be used to target risk communication messages, identify and prioritize research needs, and provide a framework for coordinating efforts with stakeholders. The risk assessment is being used to help guide APHIS’s HPAI emergency response planning and FDA’s HPAI preparedness.
Although unlikely, the risk assessment demonstrates that some amount of HPAIV-contaminated poultry and shell eggs could enter commerce. The data indicate that there is a 3.5- or 6-day window during which potentially HPAIV-positive poultry or shell eggs, respectively, could escape detection. The model predicts that consumption of HPAIV-contaminated poultry and shell eggs poses a negligible risk if properly cooked. At the same time, data suggest that some people will undercook these products and could become exposed and possibly ill.
The model shows that preventive measures, such as HPAIV-flock testing and increased inspection, would result in increased detection of HPAIV-contaminated flocks and reduce the risk of HPAIV illnesses by preventing the consumption of contaminated poultry. In addition, effectively recalling shell eggs would substantially reduce the risk to consumers from HPAIV-contaminated shell eggs.
- Executive Summary
- Report (1.8 MB)
- Response to Peer Review Comments (4.2MB)
- Models
- Shell Eggs Model (1.7MB)
- Poultry Model (2.3MB)
- Federal Register Notice (Dec 2008)
