Risk Assessment Models

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23 record(s) found




ID Author(s) Title / Description Publication Year
10726 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making
URL: http://foodrisk.org/default/assets/Framework_Informational_Summary_4-15-14.pdf

The Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making (Framework) describes a framework for conducting human health risk assessments that is responsive to the needs of decision…

The Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making (Framework) describes a framework for conducting human health risk assessments that is responsive to the needs of decision making processes at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Framework facilitates implementation of existing and future EPA guidance for conducting human health risk assessments and improves the utility of risk assessment in the decision-making process.

The risk assessment design and utility recommendations presented in the National Research Council’s report, Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment, are addressed throughout the Framework. Specifically, the Framework incorporates the recommendations that the EPA formalize and implement planning and scoping, and problem formulation in the risk assessment process as well as adopt a framework to inform decision making. The Framework reflects the NRC’s recommendations on assuring that risk assessments are well-tailored to the problems and decisions at hand so that they can inform the decision-making process in the most meaningful way.

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Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Keywords:

decision making, environment, exposure assessment, human health, planning, qualitative analysis, quantitative risk assessment, risk characterization

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10719 Huang, L.

USDA Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP 2013)
The USDA Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP 2013)
URL: http://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=23355

The USDA has updated their Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP) for 2013. IPMP 2013 is a new generation predictive microbiology tool. It is designed to analyze experimental data commonly…

The USDA has updated their Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP) for 2013. IPMP 2013 is a new generation predictive microbiology tool. It is designed to analyze experimental data commonly encountered in predictive microbiology and for the development of predictive models.

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Source: USDA Agricultural Research Service

Keywords:

Agricultural Research Service, pathogens, predictive microbiology, USDA

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20130624
2013
10718 Louise Manning (Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, UK)

Development of a food safety verification risk model
Development of a food safety verification risk model
URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=17085157&show=abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine the mechanisms for effective verification of a food safety plan and reducing verification risk.
Design/methodology/approach The research involved analysis of…

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to determine the mechanisms for effective verification of a food safety plan and reducing verification risk.

Design/methodology/approach – The research involved analysis of both qualitative and quantitative methods of verification.

Findings – Effective development of the food safety management system (FSMS) is underpinned by appropriate determination of food safety hazards, as well as the acceptable level of risk to the consumer and measures for their control. Product and process validation, and revalidation if required, is the key to consistently producing safe food and the development of appropriate real-time monitoring activities. However, it is the development of effective verification processes for the FSMS and the pre-requisite programme (PRP) and the reduction of verification risk that ensures that food safety is assured for consumers.

Originality/value – This research is of academic value and of value to those working in the food supply chain.

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Source: British Food Journal, Vol. 115 Iss: 4, pp.575 - 589

Keywords:

food safety, HACCP, monitoring

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20130327
2013
10710 University of Georgia Center for Food Safety, University of Cordoba

MicroHibro: On-line tool of Microbial Risk Assessment in Vegetables
MicroHibro: On-line tool of Microbial Risk Assessment in Vegetables
URL: http://www.microhibro.com/

A quantitative risk assessment model was built based on potential prevalence and concentration distribution data coming off the farm and then using cross-contamination, survival, and intervention rates as key…

A quantitative risk assessment model was built based on potential prevalence and concentration distribution data coming off the farm and then using cross-contamination, survival, and intervention rates as key variables that would affect the outcome of the model.The mathematical structure of the exposure assessment model was translated into a friendly-user web-based tool which is released as a Beta version in English and Spanish. The application incorporates a module for growth predictions in different vegetable matrices and microorganisms as well as a module which allows user designing and simulating exposure models to estimate the final concentration at the moment of consumption. To access this tool, you must register a username and password by clicking the "Register here" button in the lower right-hand corner. Once registered, you will need to wait for an email from the administrator of the tool before you have access. 

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Source: University of Georgia Center for Food Safety, University of Cordoba

Keywords:

chemical concentration, cross contamination, exposure assessment, exposure models, growth models, microbial contamination, microbial growth, models, pathogen survival, prevalence, quantitative risk assessment, raw vegetables, vegetables

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20110000
2011
10071 Institute of Food Research

Salmonella predictions: An Excel add-in to predict Salmonella spp. in food environments
Salmonella predictions: An Excel add-in to predict Salmonella spp. in food environments
URL: http://www.ifr.ac.uk/safety/SalmonellaPredictions/

The Salmonella_Predictions.xls Excel add-in has been developed at the Institute of Food Research, Norwich, UK under European funding (BIOTRACER project). The software is a complementing tool for bio-tracing in…

The Salmonella_Predictions.xls Excel add-in has been developed at the Institute of Food Research, Norwich, UK under European funding (BIOTRACER project). The software is a complementing tool for bio-tracing in the pork chain by predicting the dependence of Salmonella concentration on the environment. Probabilistic and kinetics models are combined to give predictions on the concentration of Salmonella spp. at any stage of the pork chain under fluctuating pH, Aw and/or temperature. Predictions can be obtained between 0-30°C, 2.5 - 7 pH  and 0.78-1 for Aw. Data to fit the models were obtained from the ComBase database.

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Source: Institute of Food Research

Keywords:

food analysis, kinetics, models, pork, predictive microbiology, probabilistic models, Salmonella, swine

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20110000
2011
10011 Food and Drug Administration

FDA Listeria monocytogenes Risk Assessment: Appendix 6: Software
FDA Listeria monocytogenes Risk Assessment: Appendix 6: Software
URL: http://www.fda.gov/Food/ScienceResearch/ResearchAreas/RiskAssessmentSafetyAssessment/ucm184533.htm

This section contains a description of some of the software routines used in preparing the Listeria monocytogenes risk assessment (Quantitative Assessment of Relative Risk to Public Health from Foodborne…

This section contains a description of some of the software routines used in preparing the Listeria monocytogenes risk assessment (Quantitative Assessment of Relative Risk to Public Health from Foodborne Listeria monocytogenes Among Selected Categories of Ready-to-Eat Foods) for all modeling used in the risk assessment. 

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Source: Food and Drug Administration

Keywords:

computer software, Food and Drug Administration, human health and safety, Listeria monocytogenes, models, quantitative risk assessment, ready-to-eat foods, risk assessment

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20030900
2003
10010 Food and Drug Administration

Vibrio parahaemolyticus Risk Assessment – Appendix 3: Risk Assessment Simulation Model
Vibrio parahaemolyticus Risk Assessment – Appendix 3: Risk Assessment Simulation Model
URL: http://www.fda.gov/Food/ScienceResearch/ResearchAreas/RiskAssessmentSafetyAssessment/ucm185244.htm#sprdshts

A Monte Carlo simulation model was developed for the V. parahaemolyticus risk assessment to capture the variability and uncertainty of the description of the processes associated with V. parahaemolyticus…

A Monte Carlo simulation model was developed for the V. parahaemolyticus risk assessment to capture the variability and uncertainty of the description of the processes associated with V. parahaemolyticus densities in oysters, the effects of oyster harvesting, consumer consumption, and human response to the pathogen. The model simulations were implemented in @Risk (Palisade). All of the calculations were performed by the Monte Carlo method of resampling from specified input distributions and appropriately combining the sampled values to generate the corresponding output distributions. The model is available for download.

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Source: Food and Drug Administration

Keywords:

Food and Drug Administration, food intake, harvesting, human health and safety, models, Monte Carlo method, oysters, risk assessment, simulation models, uncertainty, variability, Vibrio parahaemolyticus

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20050719
2005
10009 Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

FSIS Risk Assessment for Salmonella Enteritidis in Shell Eggs and Salmonella spp. in Egg Products Model
FSIS Risk Assessment for Salmonella Enteritidis in Shell Eggs and Salmonella spp. in Egg Products Model
URL: http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/Risk_Assessments/index.asp

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available,…

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Risk Assessment for Salmonella Enteritidis in Shell Eggs and Salmonella spp. in Egg Products (Oct 2005) risk assessment model is available for download and use. The full risk assessment report is also available through this link. 

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Source: Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

Keywords:

egg products, eggs, Food Safety and Inspection Service, human health and safety, models, risk assessment, Salmonella, Salmonella enteritidis

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20051000
2005
10008 Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

FSIS Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Deli Meat Model
FSIS Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Deli Meat Model
URL: http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/Risk_Assessments/index.asp

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and…

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Deli Meat (May 2003) risk assessment model is available for download and use. The full risk assessment report is also available through this link. 

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Source: Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

Keywords:

delicatessen foods, Food Safety and Inspection Service, human health and safety, Listeria monocytogenes, meat, meat products, models, ready-to-eat foods, risk assessment

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20030500
2003
10007 Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

FSIS Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Ready-to-Eat and Partially Cooked Meat and Poultry Products Model
FSIS Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Ready-to-Eat and Partially Cooked Meat and Poultry Products Model
URL: http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/Risk_Assessments/index.asp

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the…

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Ready-to-Eat and Partially Cooked Meat and Poultry Products (Sep 2005) risk assessment model is available for download and use. The full risk assessment report is also available through this link. 

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Source: Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

Keywords:

Clostridium perfringens, Food Safety and Inspection Service, human health and safety, meat, meat products, models, poultry meat, poultry products, ready-to-eat foods, risk assessment

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20050900
2005
10006 Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

FSIS Comparative Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Ready-to-eat Meat and Poultry Deli Meats Model
FSIS Comparative Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Ready-to-eat Meat and Poultry Deli Meats Model
URL: http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/Risk_Assessments/index.asp

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Comparative…

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Comparative Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Ready-to-eat Meat and Poultry Deli Meats (May 2010) risk assessment model is available for download and use. The full risk assessment report is also available through this link. 

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Source: Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

Keywords:

delicatessen foods, Food Safety and Inspection Service, human health and safety, Listeria monocytogenes, meat, models, poultry meat, ready-to-eat foods, risk assessment

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20100500
2010
10005 Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

FSIS Avian Influenza Poulty Model
FSIS Avian Influenza Poulty Model
URL: http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/Risk_Assessments/index.asp

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Interagency Risk…

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Interagency Risk Assessment for the Public Health Impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Poultry, Shell Eggs, and Egg Products (May 2010) risk assessment model for poultry is available as an excel file for download and use. The full risk assessment report is also available through this link. 

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Source: Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

Keywords:

avian influenza, Food Safety and Inspection Service, human health and safety, models, poultry, poultry meat, risk assessment

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20100500
2010
10004 Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

FSIS Avian Influenza Shell Eggs Model
FSIS Avian Influenza Shell Eggs Model
URL: http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/Risk_Assessments/index.asp

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Interagency Risk Assessment…

This website provides the risk assessments completed by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). FSIS also makes its risk assessment models publically available, and the Interagency Risk Assessment for the Public Health Impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Poultry, Shell Eggs, and Egg Products (May 2010) risk assessment model for shell eggs is available as an excel file for download and use. The full risk assessment report is also available through this link. 

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Source: Food Safety and Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

Keywords:

avian influenza, egg products, eggs, Food Safety and Inspection Service, human health and safety, models, risk assessment

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20100500
2010
9648 Ross, T., et al

Australian Risk Assessment model for Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat meats
Australian Risk Assessment model for Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat meats
URL: http://foodrisk.org/exclusives/au-listeria/

The present risk assessment was created as part of a study to assess the public health risk due to Listeria monocytogenes in Australian made processed meat products, more specifically…

The present risk assessment was created as part of a study to assess the public health risk due to Listeria monocytogenes in Australian made processed meat products, more specifically lunch meats, pâtés/liverwursts and cooked sausages. The model predicts the concentrations of L. monocytogenes on products at the time of consumption using industry and other survey data augmented by predictive microbiology models. The model performs calculations in seven stages: 1. Storage at the processing plant; 2. Transport: Processor to Retail Distribution Centre; 3. Storage at Retail Distribution Centre; 4. Retail Display; 5. Transport: Retail – Consumer. 6. Storage by Consumer (Package unopened) and; 7. Consumer by Consumer after Package opened. This @Risk model can be found on this website. 

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Source: FoodRisk.org, International Journal of Food Microbiology, Vol. 131, No. 2-3, May 31, 2009, p. 128-37

Keywords:

food processing, Listeria monocytogenes, meat, methodology, models, ready-to-eat foods, risk assessment, storage

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20090531
2009
9594 European Food Safety Authority

Scientific Opinion on the revision of the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the BSE risk posed by processed animal proteins (PAPs)
Scientific Opinion on the revision of the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the BSE risk posed by processed animal proteins (PAPs)
URL: http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/1947.htm

Following a request from the European Commission (EC), the Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ) was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the revision of the Quantitative Risk Assessment…

Following a request from the European Commission (EC), the Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ) was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the revision of the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) risk posed by Processed Animal Proteins (PAPs).

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Source: EFSA Journal, Vol. 9, No. 1, Jan. 11, 2011, p. 1947.

Keywords:

animal proteins, beef, beef cattle, beef cows, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, food processing, models, prion diseases, prions, quantitative risk assessment, risk assessment

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20110111
2011
8673 Evers, E.; Chardon, J.

swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) tool
A swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) tool
URL: http://foodrisk.org/exclusives/sQMRA/

In this FoodRisk Exclusive, the authors developed a simplified QMRA model especially aimed at comparing the risk of pathogenfood product combinations. The swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) tool…

In this FoodRisk Exclusive, the authors developed a simplified QMRA model especially aimed at comparing the risk of pathogen–food product combinations. The swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) – tool is implemented in Microsoft Excel. Special attention is given to make the sQMRA tool insightful, for educational purposes. Like in full-scale QMRA, pathogen numbers are followed through the food chain, which in this case starts at retail and ends with the number of human cases of illness. The model is deterministic and includes cross-contamination and preparation (heating) in the kitchen and a dose–response relationship. Please see the original article publication in the FoodRisk database, as well.

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Source: Foodrisk.org Exclusive

Keywords:

biological hazards, farm to fork, food pathogens, foodborne illness, human health, methodology, microbiological risk assessment, models, quantitative analysis, quantitative risk assessment, risk assessment

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20100409
2010
7527 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO)

Risk Assessment for Cronobacter sakazakii in Powdered Infant Formula
Risk Assessment for Cronobacter sakazakii in Powdered Infant Formula
URL: http://www.mramodels.org/ESAK/ModelSummary.aspx

FAO and WHO have developed and made publicly available, a user-friendly web-based model to assess the risks associated with Enterobacter sakazakii in powdered infant formula.

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Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Health Organization

Keywords:

bacteria, biological hazards, Enterobacter, Enterobacter sakazakii, infant foods, infant formulas, methodology, models, risk analysis, risk assessment

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20080000
2008
5254 Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling, Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Models Knowledge Base
Models Knowledge Base
URL: http://cfpub.epa.gov/crem/knowledge_base/knowbase.cfm

Database of EPA's environmental models. Models can be searched by keyword or browsed based on certain environmental indicators. Includes general information about the model, links to the model's homepage…

Database of EPA's environmental models. Models can be searched by keyword or browsed based on certain environmental indicators. Includes general information about the model, links to the model's homepage if available, user information, and information on the science behind the model

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Source: Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling, Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency

Keywords:

databases, exposure, natural resources, risk analysis, simulation models

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4113 Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN), Food and Drug Administration (FDA)/RTI International

Food Handling Practices Model (FHPM) Version 1.1
The Food Handling Practices Model (FHPM) Version 1.1
URL: http://foodrisk.org/exclusives/FHPM/

Computer simulation model for estimating the way that changes in food handling practices at the retail, foodservice, or household level may affect the incidence of food-borne illness in the…

Computer simulation model for estimating the way that changes in food handling practices at the retail, foodservice, or household level may affect the incidence of food-borne illness in the US. Downloadable files for the model, a user's guide, backgrounder, and final report are available

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Source: FoodRisk.org

Keywords:

food handling, models

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2850 Microbiological and Chemical Exposure Assessment Research Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Dietary Exposure Potential Model
Dietary Exposure Potential Model
URL: http://www.epa.gov/nerlcwww/depm.htm

Model and database system for estimating dietary exposure to chemical residues. Data is included from government-sponsored national food intake surveys and chemical residue monitoring programs. The user can add…

Model and database system for estimating dietary exposure to chemical residues. Data is included from government-sponsored national food intake surveys and chemical residue monitoring programs. The user can add additional foods or chemicals and associated data, and the user can import food diaries for exposure analysis. There is also an option to include exposure from tap water

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Source: Microbiological and Chemical Exposure Assessment Research Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency

Keywords:

chemical hazards, exposure, mathematical models, simulation models

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2124 Zheng, J., Frey, H.C.

AuvTool
AuvTool
URL: http://foodrisk.org/exclusives/AuvTool/

This software tool, developed for the Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency, is for use in quantifying variability and uncertainty in quantitative analysis. The tool was presented…

This software tool, developed for the Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency, is for use in quantifying variability and uncertainty in quantitative analysis. The tool was presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting in New Orleans, LA, in a workshop entitled "Bootstrap Simulation and Two- Dimensional Monte Carlo Simulation: Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty, Mixture Distributions, Measurement Error, and Censored Data." The software is available to download, as is a user's manual, technical documentation, workshop handouts and slides, and a paper entitled "Quantification of variability and uncertainty using mixture distributions: evaluation of sample size, mixing weights and separation between components"

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Source: FoodRisk.org

Keywords:

computer software, exposure, methodology, probability distribution, risk assessment, simulation models, statistical models

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20020200
2002
1811 Exponent, Inc.

FARE MicrobialTM
FARE MicrobialTM
URL: http://foodrisk.org/exclusives/faremicrobial/

Software program for conducting probabilistic microbial risk assessment. The program was developed by Exponent together with the Food and Drug Administration, and consists of a Contamination and Growth Module…

Software program for conducting probabilistic microbial risk assessment. The program was developed by Exponent together with the Food and Drug Administration, and consists of a Contamination and Growth Module and an Exposure Module. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) 1994-96, 98 are included in the program. A users manual, containing both installation and use guidelines, is provided

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Source: FoodRisk.org

Keywords:

biological hazards, computer software, exposure, food microbiology, methodology, microbiological risk assessment, predictive microbiology, quantitative risk assessment, risk assessment, simulation models, statistical models, temperature

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20020900
2002
1560 Office of Pesticide Programs, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Water Models
Water Models
URL: http://www.epa.gov/oppefed1/models/water/index.htm

Downloadable models that can be used to predict pesticide concentrations in ground and surface water. Models available are PRZM3, EXAMS II, FIRST, GENEEC2, and SCI-GROW

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Source: Office of Pesticide Programs, Environmental Protection Agency

Keywords:

exposure, pesticide residues, public water supply, simulation models

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